How to Address Overfitting in Prophet Model for Sales Forecasting?
I am using Prophet for sales forecasting, but I am encountering an overfitting issue. My current model parameters are leading to an R-squared (R2)
value of 1.00
, indicating perfect fit, which suggests overfitting. When I try to reduce the changepoint_prior_scale (CPS)
and fourier_order
values to mitigate this, my error metrics (MAE, MSE, RMSE)
increase significantly, leading to very large errors.