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Calculating variance of gradient of barren plateau problem in quantum variational circuit

In paper Cost function dependent barren plateaus in shallow
parametrized quantum circuits, the author exhibit an warm-up example in page 2 to show the barren plateau phenomenon. In this example, the author presented cost function and global cost function. Then the variance of global gradient is image. It is pretty confusing to me about getting the result of this variance, can someone please help me with this calculation?